I have been to The Korean Peninsula and participated in war gaming an attack by the North. I have written about the subject, discussed it on CNN, talked about building a coalition force, spoken and written about a need for a larger navy and suggested a naval blockade similar to President Kennedy’s blockade during the Cuban missile crisis. Yes I get the 800 mile border with China but with enforced sanctions we can squeeze their supply chain that depends on imports for sustainment.
I disagree with Susan Rice about accepting a nuclear North Korea. North Korea will sell nuclear capability to others that can potentially get in the hands of terrorists. As a former National Security Advisor she should know that. A single nuclear bomb launched on a large urban city in the U.S. could kill millions of people. A North Korean submarine once capable with multiple war heads could kill tens of millions of Americans. We can’t look at today only but years in the future. What happens if North Korea one day seeks to unify the Peninsula as they did in the past and attacks the South threatening nuclear retaliation against the U.S. if we get involved? Do we defend South Korea or not honor our agreement. Ballistic missile defense is part of the future answer but the problem is today.
During the Cuban Missile crisis President Kennedy deployed naval vessels to blockade Cuba and prevent delivery of military arms from the Soviet Union. Historically there have been other effective naval blockades.
We may face no good options but before initiating a preventive first strike a less aggressive military option is to blockade North Korean sea ports with a coalition of South Korean, Japanese and U.S. warships and perhaps Australia and Thailand would join. In preparation for establishing sea control our ships require functional ASW, mine counter measure and Aegis capability should Kim Jong-un take aggressive action. Seoul will be at risk to an attack and defensive capabilities including the land based THAAD system need to be operational.
North Korea has limited resources importing more than it exports. China, South Korea, Thailand and Russia benefit from that trade. North Korea exports coal and other mined materials but depends on imports for sustainment. Compounding the problem is the North Korean export of weapons to third world countries and potentially nuclear capabilities to Iran. Nuclear proliferation and an errant missile launch is a risk to China and Russia as well as Japan, South Korea and the U.S. and a reason to join together.
South Korea and Thailand are U.S. allies. Russia borders North Korea and if Russia participated it adds to the pressure. A blockade by sea is not enough however. China needs to stop the flow of supplies over the 800 mile land border by blocking rail and roads. Concerned we would act unilaterally China has a motivation to maintain a border force to prevent North Koreans fleeing into their country and is in a position to control the flow of supplies.
We often ask China to control North Korea but this is a specific request to assist in choking the North Korean supply chain, hopefully without a shot fired. If North Korea initiates an attack we will have overwhelming capability and purpose to destroy them. In addition to the military option we simultaneously need enhanced banking and economic sanctions and cyber and psychological operations to maximize pressure combining soft and hard power. This is the challenge to see if China will join us in this option.
St. Louis University hosted a panel discussion on the importance of the Korean/U.S. relationship. U.S. State Department and South Korean Embassy diplomats briefed the economic prosperity, trading relationship and the importance of the military relationship that has taken place since 1953. North Korean tensions were also brought up. The U.S. military presence in Korea is valued for peace and stability in the region.
Among U.S. exporters, GM has a large presence in Korea and Ford is increasing its position in auto sales and service. Agriculture, auto, aviation and pharmaceutical products are major U.S. exports. Although a trade imbalance for the U.S. its a tremendous story on the success of Foreign Trade Agreements. Hundreds of millions of dollars are currently being invested in the U.S. by Korean companies.
Of concern to Korea is the need for imported energy. Nuclear energy is growing in Korea but over 80% of their oil flows thru the Straits of Hormuz. The same applies for Japan. Potential disruption to that passage by Iran has Korea working with the U.S. on exporting oil and natural gas. A North Korean and Iranian relationship adds to the drama. It will take a while to implement the movement of this commodity but it has significant attention at several levels.
Imagine the economic impact from the loss of 80+% of a country’s oil. For now it is the U.S. Navy, specifically the 5th fleet operating in the Persian Gulf that keeps the Straits of Hormuz open for oil flow to our Korean/Japanese trading partners.
How would the Chinese react to a diplomatic proposal of a unified Korean Peninsula governed by the South and the departure of all American forces from South Korea? THAAD systems are removed to appease China. We remain in the region in Japan and continue port visits. South Korea builds an economically independent country to serve all the Korean people. China and Russia benefit from this trading relationship. The most important piece is the removal of Kim Jong Un by the Chinese or through an internal coup followed by the denuclearization of the peninsula for our benefit. Kim Jong Un is a thorn to the Chinese leadership and taking care of his people has never been his priority. This relieves a financial burden on the Chinese. The risk of North Korean mass migration is eliminated. The U.S. military departure removes the Chinese concern over a buffer state and benefits us financially. Korean families are reunited. North Korean people have a better future. Russia, China, South Korea, Japan and the U.S. contribute to the economic initiative of a unified Peninsula. No war! It’s a wishful thought.
Kim Il-sung shared Ho Chi Minh vision of a unified country. I believe the grandfather shared his objective with his son and in turn the grandson. Kim Jong -un would like to fulfill the dream of his fathers. With nuclear weapons we may have to choose at some point not honoring our alliance if the South is attacked or risking a nuclear attack on major US cities. Squeezing NK supply chain or removing KJU is the only answer. How strong will our retaliation be if a ship is attacked our aircraft shot down? All in or measured?